How Long Will Your Retirement Savings Last? (With Examples)
Automated technical check: . Scope and review policy
A retirement balance does not imply a particular number of years of income. Longevity depends on spending, inflation, return timing, taxes, fees and other income. A larger balance with proportionally larger withdrawals has the same longevity in a simple percentage-based model.
Start with the zero-return baseline
At zero return, no fees and a fixed $40,000 annual withdrawal, $1 million funds 25 complete withdrawals. That is $1,000,000 / $40,000. Inflation-adjusted spending or unexpected expenses change the result, so this is an arithmetic baseline rather than a retirement plan.
Constant-return illustrations: state the assumptions
The following examples start with $1 million, withdraw $40,000 at the beginning of the first year, and apply the stated constant nominal return to the balance remaining after each withdrawal. The next withdrawal increases by the stated inflation rate. The test horizon is 60 years; taxes and fees are excluded.
| Annual return | Withdrawal increase | Model result |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | 0% per year | 25 full annual withdrawals funded |
| 5% | 0% per year | Not depleted within 60 years |
| 5% | 3% per year | 33 full annual withdrawals funded |
The results are generated from a tested withdrawal illustration, not a market forecast. In the fixed-withdrawal 5% example, modeled growth is sufficient within the test horizon. That does not establish that the portfolio lasts forever or that 5% is a safe real-world return.
Why proportional examples must agree
$500,000 with $20,000 first-year withdrawals, $1 million with $40,000, and $1.5 million with $60,000 all start at 4%. Under identical percentage returns, inflation, withdrawal timing and fees, they have the same modeled longevity. Earlier versions of this guide incorrectly assigned different lifetimes to these proportional cases.
Withdrawal rate is not a probability of success
An initial withdrawal rate is the first year's withdrawal divided by the starting balance. Taking that same dollar amount, adjusted for inflation later, differs from taking a fixed percentage of the changing balance every year. Neither a smooth projection nor a rule of thumb measures the probability of funding your own retirement.
Actual returns vary, and their order matters when you withdraw. Early losses leave less money invested after withdrawals. A constant-return illustration cannot capture that sequence risk, so avoid treating its result as a guaranteed retirement date or spending limit.
Other income reduces the spending gap
If a hypothetical budget is $60,000 and other income covers $24,000, the initial portfolio gap is $36,000, before any adjustments for taxes and benefit timing. These are example inputs, not average Social Security benefits.
US Social Security benefits can increase when claiming is delayed beyond full retirement age, with increases stopping at 70. This is not a guaranteed investment return: delaying also means forgoing earlier payments, and the appropriate decision depends on personal circumstances. Use the SSA's official delayed-retirement explanation and your own estimate.
Use the right tool for the right stage
DigiCalc's Retirement Calculator projects accumulation before retirement only. It does not accept withdrawal plans or multiple retirement income sources. The illustrations here are separate from that calculator; consult a qualified adviser or an appropriate withdrawal-planning tool for a complete retirement plan.
Sources and limits
- Investor.gov: compounding inputs and contribution/withdrawal concepts
- SSA: delayed retirement credits and claiming considerations
The arithmetic and model assumptions were checked; this is not an independent financial-professional review or personalized financial advice.